The Kagame Conundrum
By Femi Olugbile
The news broke recently that an African School of Governance has been established in Kigali, in the Republic of Rwanda, and that Professor Kingsley Chiedu Moghalu, a distinguished international scholar and former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, has been chosen as the inaugural President of the School.
The conception and actualisation of the African School of Governance bespeaks lofty aspirations, and asserts that this tall, wiry 67 year-old ethnic Tutsi from a royal lineage is fit to be the driver and enabler of those aspirations for the African continent. There is no vainglory or cynicism there. Even his avowed enemies would concede that the man has proof-of achievement-in-governance that is unmatched by any African leader in modern times. He is effectively the creator and guardian of a modern Rwanda that has risen from the ashes of infamous genocide. At the same time, he is reviled in many circles as a brutal dictator who suppresses local dissent, poaches the mineral resources of his neighbours and fosters insurrection within their borders.
The African School of Governance (ASG) was mooted in 2022 by Kagame in discussion with Hailemariam Desalegn, the former Prime Minister of Ethiopia. They wanted a graduate-level institution that would offer world-class public policy and engagement training to meet the needs of leaders across Africa. It would cultivate a new generation of purpose-driven leaders equipped with the mindsets, skills and knowledge required to address Africa’s development opportunities in the 21st century.
With assistance from Mastercard Foundation, and with a Board made up of Makhtar Diop, Managing Director of the International Finance Corporation (IFC), Dr Donald Kabureka, former President of the African Development Bank, Professor Hajer Gueldich, a former Professor at the University of Carthage and Legal Counsel to the African Union, Kishore Mahbubani, former Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, Francis Gatare, CEO of Rwanda Development Board, and now Moghalu, the President, the ASG has finally taken off. The presence of Mahbubani, the former Dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy in Singapore is emblematic. Kagame has a fondness for Lee Kuan Yew which he expresses openly, and the late leader’s relentless, no-matter-whose-horse-is-gored pursuit of effectiveness may be the model to which he holds himself, accountable, and also the way he justifies what others perceive as his authoritarian flaws.
Rwanda is a small, land-locked African country bereft of natural resources. It has been ‘punching above its weight’ since Kagame came on the scene. In 1994, 800,000 Rwandans were murdered in a gruesome genocide. Today Kigali the capital is among the cleanest environments in Africa – literally and metaphorically. According to Transparency International, corruption is very low. The country implements strict policies on waste management and plastics use, making it possibly the neatest country in Africa. The countryside is picturesque, with undulating green hills, turquoise lakes and a unique wildlife, all of which are creating an underpinning for a burgeoning tourist industry. Rwanda today is an outlier in Africa on the journey to Universal Health Coverage, with over 90% of its citizens able to access healthcare through Health Insurance. Ease of Doing Business is the second best in Africa.
It is still a poor country, with almost a fifth of the population being food insecure, though the economy is growing at among the highest rates in Africa. Real GDP increased by 9.7% in the first quarter of 2024.
Rwanda may be good work in progress, but there is an ambiguity about the picture that makes it hard to applaud without reservation.
Paul Kagame was born on 23rd October 1957 in Southern Rwanda. His family fled to Uganda for safety when he was two years old. As a youth, he joined the rebel Ugandan army of Yoweri Museveni, rising through the ranks till Museveni became the president of Uganda. He later joined the Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF), a rebel army which invaded his home country to bring about change. He became leader of the RPF.
The assassination of Rwandan President Habyarimana provided ostensible cause for the genocide that followed. The RPF took control of the country and ended the genocide.
Kagame was Vice President till 2000, when he eased out the President and took on untrammelled power. He has since won ‘landslide’ elections – in 2003, 2010, 2017 and 2024.
His development programmes have led to huge measurable improvements in healthcare, education and general economy of his nation. However his grip is stern, and his reach is long. Perceived enemies driven into exile have died mysteriously as far afield as Europe and South Africa. Major Opposition figures have been imprisoned and barred from standing in elections. It has been said that sometimes he gets worked up and physically assaults erring aides, an accusation he has not denied.
Political parties in Rwanda are constitutionally barred from showing ethnic bias in their membership recruitment or their operations. But Rwanda, a country that is technically a multiparty democracy, is really a one-party state, with the reins in the hands of the President’s men.
The Kagame remake of Rwanda seems destined to go on as far as the eye can see. The current ‘Vision 2050’ targets Economic Growth and High Quality of Life for Rwandans. The measurement indices show that the majority of his countrymen are profiting from his vision.
His apparent success and staying power raise troubling questions. Perhaps Professor Moghalu will boldly create programmes that lay the fundamental issues open to honest discussion at the African School of Governance, asking the questions instead of assuming that the answers are already settled? Is multi-party ‘Democracy’ truly the best form of governance? Is there local provenance for the Lee Kuan Yew strong-arm model, with a disinterested leader who knows it all and can do it all, standing above the fray? Do Africans prefer to be ‘strongly’ led? Is there an ‘African Democracy’ that may be codified and taught?
Finally, is the search for a new, homespun strategy and governance model in a continent that has suffered from the much-abused rituals of One-Man-One-Vote ‘Democracy’ just a rationalisation of good old-fashioned dictatorship – a la Paul Kagame?
The questions at least deserve to be asked.
